The ongoing conflict in Venezuela has its roots in political and economic turmoil. Here’s a brief timeline of major events that have unfolded over the years, leading up to the current situation in 2023:
- Post-2013: Following the death of President Hugo Chávez in 2013, Nicolás Maduro assumed the presidency. Under his rule, Venezuela continued to experience economic problems including high inflation rates and significant shortages of goods, exacerbated by existing policies from Chávez’s tenure1.
- 2014-2016: Economic recession hit Venezuela in 2014, and by 2016, the country had an inflation rate of 800%, the highest in its history. The situation worsened with falling oil prices in 2015 and reduced oil production due to lack of maintenance and investment. The government’s denial of the crisis and repressive actions towards the opposition intensified the crisis, with extrajudicial killings becoming common1.
- 2017: Venezuela saw a constitutional crisis when Maduro disavowed the National Assembly, leading to a series of protests, which culminated in Maduro calling for a Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution. This move was seen by many as a bid to retain power indefinitely, with over 40 countries and supranational bodies not recognizing the Constituent National Assembly1.
- 2019: The crisis further escalated, and international aid was refused by Maduro’s government, which worsened the effects of the crisis in Venezuela. The Maduro government was also noted for using food and other government handouts to maintain support among impoverished Venezuelans1.
- 2023:
- Early 2023: Human rights abuses continue with persistent attacks and widespread repression by the Venezuelan government against perceived opponents reported by the UN2.
- October 2023: A significant development occurs as the US eases sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector in response to a 2024 election deal. This sanction relief is seen as a reaction to an election deal aimed at the 2024 elections3.
- October 23, 2023: Venezuela’s opposition parties hold their first primary in 11 years to select a candidate to face President Maduro in upcoming elections4.
- Upcoming 2024 Elections: Venezuela’s government and opposition resume talks that are seen to benefit the upcoming 2024 election, and there’s potential for further US sanction relief depending on the political developments5.
The situation in Venezuela continues to evolve, with the country’s political and economic stability, human rights situation, and relations with international stakeholders being key factors influencing the unfolding scenario.
A history of conflict in Venezuela, and what it is like in more peaceful times
Pre-20th Century:
Venezuela, like many South American nations, experienced conflicts during the colonial period and the fight for independence from Spanish rule, which it achieved in 1821.
Early to Mid-20th Century:
- Peaceful Times: Venezuela enjoyed periods of economic prosperity and relative political stability, particularly during the mid-20th century. The discovery and exploitation of oil in the early 20th century significantly boosted its economy, and by the 1950s, Venezuela was one of the world’s leading oil exporters.
Late 20th Century:
- 1970s-1980s: Economic downturns began in the 1970s and 1980s as global oil prices fluctuated, which led to rising inflation, unemployment, and public discontent.
- 1989 Caracazo: Discontent culminated in 1989 with the Caracazo, a series of protests and riots triggered by austerity measures.
- 1992 Coup Attempts: Economic and social unrest led to two failed coup attempts in 1992, one of which was led by Hugo Chávez, who would later become president.
Hugo Chávez Era (1999-2013):
- Early Years: Chávez was elected president in 1998, and his early years saw a new constitution and increased government control over the oil industry. His policies, known as the Bolivarian Revolution, aimed at reducing poverty and increasing social justice, and were initially popular as they were funded by high oil prices.
- 2002 Coup Attempt: A short-lived coup attempt against Chávez occurred in 2002, but he was restored to power within 48 hours.
- 2000s: During the 2000s, Chávez’s governance style became increasingly autocratic, with significant state control over the economy and media.
Peaceful times
The peaceful times in Venezuela were largely attributed to economic prosperity driven by oil exports, which funded social programs and maintained political stability. However, the over-dependence on oil revenues, coupled with political mismanagement, set the stage for economic and social crises as global oil prices fluctuated. The political landscape of Venezuela has been significantly shaped by the Bolivarian Revolution initiated by Chávez, with his and Maduro’s administrations marked by a move towards socialist policies, autocratic governance, and increasing political and social unrest.
With all this in mind, how safe is it to travel to Venezuela?